Highlights

• • Market-implied probability at 1.86 is ~53.8%
• • Our best estimate for the likeliest player (Gamble) is ~48%, producing negative EV

Pros

• + Gamble shows more recent match activity on hard courts
• + Both players have hard-court experience, so surface is neutral

Cons

• - Extremely small career samples and inconsistent results reduce confidence
• - Current odds require >53.8% win probability to be profitable, which exceeds our estimate

Details

We find no value at the current symmetrical pricing (1.86 / 1.86). The market-implied probability at 1.86 is ~53.8%. After reviewing the available records, Jon Gamble shows marginally better recent activity (1-1 in 2025 on hard) while Jeremy Zhang has a 0-2 record with only 2024 activity; however both sample sizes are extremely small and inconsistent. Given the limited data and high uncertainty we estimate Jon Gamble's true win probability at 48.0%, which is below the break-even implied probability of 53.8% at the current odds, producing a negative EV (EV = 0.48 * 1.86 - 1 = -0.107). Therefore we do not recommend a side; the minimum fair decimal odds to justify a small positive EV on our estimate would be 2.083.

Key factors

• • Very small and recent sample sizes for both players leading to high uncertainty
• • Jon Gamble has marginally more recent hard-court activity (2025) compared with Jeremy Zhang (2024)
• • Market is priced evenly (1.86/1.86) which requires >53.8% win probability to be +EV