Highlights

• • Home listed at 1.50 despite 0-2 career record
• • Backing away at 2.45 yields ~47% ROI at our 60% win estimate

Pros

• + Clear value gap between our estimated win probability and market price
• + Simple, defensible rationale based on documented lack of wins for the favorite

Cons

• - Very limited data on both players (only Zhang's 2 matches), increasing model uncertainty
• - No direct H2H, injury, or opponent form details available to further validate the estimate

Details

We find value on the away player because the market prices the home player (Jeremy Zhang) as a strong favorite at 1.50 (implied win probability 66.7%), but the only research available shows Zhang is an inexperienced player with a 0-2 career record on hard courts and very limited match history. Given Zhang's lack of wins and limited sample, we judge the market is overstating his likelihood to win. With no contrary information about the away player, we estimate the away player’s true chance materially higher than the market-implied 40.8% (1/2.45). At an estimated true probability of 60%, the current away price of 2.45 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.47), so we recommend backing the away side at these prices while acknowledging high uncertainty due to scarce data.

Key factors

• • Jeremy Zhang 0-2 career record with only hard-court matches recorded
• • Extremely small sample size and no recorded wins suggests high uncertainty around the listed favorite
• • Market-implied probability for away (≈40.8%) appears low relative to Zhang's documented form