Jerome Kym vs Dhakshineswar Suresh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Dhakshineswar Suresh at 4.7 — our estimated 23.5% win probability makes the price +EV (≈10.5%).
Highlights
- • Home price 1.19 is very short and likely overstated
- • Away at 4.7 exceeds our breakeven odds (4.255) and yields positive EV
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely-available price
- + Suresh's hard-court record supports a non-trivial upset chance
Cons
- - Suresh has a smaller sample size and less top-level exposure than Kym
- - Uncertainty in exact form and lack of direct H2H increases variance
Details
We believe the market (home 1.19 implied ~84.0%) overstates Jerome Kym's win chances. Kym has more matches and higher-level exposure, but his recent results are mixed and not decisive enough to justify an >80% true probability versus an opponent who has a strong win rate on hard courts despite a smaller sample. Dhakshineswar Suresh's 19-8 record (primarily on hard) suggests a materially better chance than the 21.3% implied by 4.7. Adjusting for sample-size uncertainty, surface overlap, and bookmaker margin, we estimate Suresh's true win probability at ~23.5%, which turns the available 4.7 into positive expected value (EV = 0.235 * 4.7 - 1 ≈ 0.105). Because the EV is positive at the quoted away price, we recommend backing the away side.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker price for Jerome Kym (1.19) implies ~84% which appears inflated given mixed recent results
- • Dhakshineswar Suresh has a strong win-loss ratio on hard courts (19-8) despite smaller sample
- • Margin and uncertainty from limited direct data create value on the underdog at 4.7