Jerome Kym vs Sumit Nagal

Highlights

• • Nagal implied value: EV ≈ +0.112 per unit at 2.55
• • Market overprices Kym relative to career win rates and available form

Pros

• + Positive expected value based on conservative, data-driven probability
• + Odds (2.55) comfortably above the breakeven threshold for our estimate

Cons

• - No head-to-head, surface, or injury specifics provided — increases uncertainty
• - Both players show mixed recent form, so actual match outcome variance is high

Details

We find value on Sumit Nagal at the current moneyline (2.55). Nagal's career win rate (24-31; ~43.6%) implies a baseline match-winning probability around 0.436. The market prices Jerome Kym at 1.52 (implied 65.8%) which appears rich relative to the available form and career-level records: Kym is the stronger player by record (34-24) but not to the extent implied by 65–66% chance. Using Nagal's empirical win rate as a conservative proxy for his true probability (0.436) produces a positive expected value at 2.55 (EV = 0.436 * 2.55 - 1 ≈ 0.112). Surface and venue are unspecified and recent form for both is mixed, which increases uncertainty but does not eliminate the edge shown by the odds discrepancy. Therefore we recommend the away side only because expected_value > 0 at current quoted price.

Key factors

• • Sumit Nagal career win rate ~43.6% gives a conservative true probability estimate of 0.436
• • Market assigns Jerome Kym a ~65.8% win probability (1.52), likely overstating the gap given form and records
• • Surface/venue unknown and recent results are mixed for both, increasing variance but not removing value on Nagal