Jesper De Jong vs Francisco Comesana
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We prefer backing Comesana at 2.63 — our model estimates ~44% win probability, producing ~15.7% ROI vs the market price.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker prices De Jong much higher than the on-paper gap justifies
- • Comesana at 2.63 exceeds our required fair odds (~2.273) for a positive EV
Pros
- + Clear positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Both players have very similar records, reducing uncertainty from hidden form differences
Cons
- - Limited specific match-level data (no H2H, limited injury/conditions info) increases variance
- - If De Jong has an unreported advantage (fitness, matchup, or conditions) our probability may be optimistic
Details
We find value on Francisco Comesana at the current moneyline (2.63). The market implies Comesana has ~38.0% chance (1/2.63 = 0.380). Based on the research both players have nearly identical recent records (De Jong 42-30, Comesana 40-29) and similar surface experience, so the true probability gap should be small. We estimate Comesana's true win probability at 44% (De Jong ~56%), reflecting a small edge to De Jong but far from the market's ~69% for De Jong. At our estimate Comesana's fair decimal would be ~2.27; the available 2.63 therefore offers positive expected value (EV = 0.44 * 2.63 - 1 ≈ 0.157). Key drivers: nearly identical records and form, neutral/no injury information, and bookmaker overpricing of the nominal 'home' favorite.
Key factors
- • Near-identical season records and match counts (small objective gap)
- • Both have match experience on the relevant surfaces (no clear surface edge)
- • Market-implied probability for De Jong (69.4%) looks overstated versus observable form