Jesper De Jong vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a modest positive edge on Jesper De Jong at 1.66: our 62% win estimate implies fair odds of ~1.613, so the offered price contains ~2.9% expected value.
Highlights
- • Market price 1.66 implies 60.2% chance; we estimate 62%
- • Small but positive EV (~0.029 per unit staked) given current odds
Pros
- + Clearer historical win-rate advantage for De Jong
- + Both players have recent hard-court exposure, lowering surface risk
Cons
- - No head-to-head data or injury status provided in the research, increasing uncertainty
- - Edge is modest — variance in tennis can quickly erase small EVs
Details
We estimate Jesper De Jong is the value at the current market price. De Jong's career win rate (42-30, ~58%) materially exceeds Tomas Martin Etcheverry's record (26-34, ~43%), both have experience across surfaces including hard courts so surface mismatch is not a clear disadvantage. The market price of 1.66 implies a win probability of ~60.2%; we assess a true win probability of 62% for De Jong given superior recent record and comparable Grand Slam exposure in the research. At p=0.62 the fair odds are 1.613; the offered 1.66 therefore yields positive expected value. We note uncertainty from limited head-to-head and injury details in the provided research, so the edge is modest but present.
Key factors
- • De Jong's superior overall win-loss record (42-30 vs 26-34)
- • Both players have recent hard-court Grand Slam matches, reducing surface concern
- • Market-implied probability (60.2%) is slightly lower than our estimate (62%) creating value