Jesper De Jong vs Francisco Cerundolo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Francisco Cerundolo at ~1.442 because we estimate his true win probability at ~72%, producing a positive expected value (~3.8% ROI) after accounting for home/neutral factors.
Highlights
- • Market prices Cerundolo at ~69.3% implied; we estimate 72%
- • EV at current odds is positive though modest
Pros
- + Clear quantitative edge vs market-implied probability
- + No injury or surface concerns in the provided research
Cons
- - Davis Cup ties and home advantage can increase upset risk
- - Edge is modest (low single-digit ROI), sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Francisco Cerundolo (1.442 -> 69.3%) to our assessment of his true win probability. Both players have comparable recent activity and experience across surfaces, but Cerundolo has a marginally stronger win-loss record and more consistent results in the period shown, while no injuries or negative form flags are reported for him. Jesper De Jong is priced as a clear underdog at 2.81, which implies a 35.6% chance; however, we assess Cerundolo's true win probability at 72%. That makes the current Cerundolo price a value play: EV = 0.72 * 1.442 - 1 = +0.038 (3.8% ROI). The market implied probability (69.3%) is below our estimate, so at widely available prices around 1.442 there is positive expected value on Cerundolo. We account for a slight home/neutral advantage for De Jong and Davis Cup variability in our probability but still find the favorite underpriced.
Key factors
- • Cerundolo has a marginally better overall win-loss record in the research window
- • Both players have demonstrated competence on hard courts; no injury or form red flags reported
- • Market-implied probability (69.3%) is below our estimated true probability (72%), creating a small edge