Jessica Pieri vs Anastasia Gasanova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Research shows no clear advantage for either player and our 50% win-probability estimate generates no positive EV at the current lines; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Profiles and recent results provided are effectively even between the players
- • Away is slightly favored by the market (1.79) but not justified by the available data
Pros
- + Market provides clear decimals for comparison
- + Limited, symmetric data reduces risk of hidden bias
Cons
- - Research lacks H2H, injury, or detailed form/context to identify an edge
- - Away being favorite at 1.79 would require >55.9% true win chance for value, which is unsupported
Details
We see near-identical profiles and recent form for Jessica Pieri and Anastasia Gasanova in the supplied research (both 10-21, similar surfaces and recent losses), with no H2H, injury, or surface advantage information to separate them. The market currently prices Pieri at 2.00 (50.0% implied) and Gasanova at 1.79 (55.9% implied). Given the evidence available, we estimate the true win probability for the match as roughly 50% for each player. At that probability the home price (2.00) is fair value (EV ≈ 0) and the away price (1.79) is over-priced versus our estimate (negative EV). Therefore there is no positive EV opportunity at the quoted lines and we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical career records in the provided research (10-21), giving no clear quality edge
- • No H2H, injury, or venue/surface advantage data in the research to separate the players
- • Market prices favor the away player at 1.79 (55.9% implied) while our estimated probability is ~50%, producing no positive EV