Highlights

• • Pieri's recent results in the research show losses and a subpar career win rate
• • Current price 1.175 implies an 85% chance — far above our 35% estimate

Pros

• + Book price is widely available and reflects a clear market view
• + If additional information on Chong showed clear weakness, Pieri might be a value at much longer odds

Cons

• - Research does not support the market-implied probability for Pieri
• - No data on Chong prevents a confident contrarian selection in her favor

Details

We see Jessica Pieri priced as a very heavy favorite at 1.175 (implied ~85%). The only research provided documents Pieri's weak career record (10-21) and recent losses, which does not support an 85% win probability. With no usable data on Eudice Chong in the research set, we must be conservative. We estimate Pieri's true win probability at 35%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~2.857; at the market price of 1.175 the expected value is strongly negative (EV = 0.35 * 1.175 - 1 = -0.589). Because the available market price is far below our required fair odds and we lack corroborating evidence that Pieri is legitimately a dominant favorite, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Jessica Pieri's documented career record is poor (10-21) and recent form shows multiple losses
• • Market heavily favors Pieri (1.175) which implies ~85% win chance; research does not support that level
• • No research data provided for Eudice Chong, increasing uncertainty and arguing for caution