Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Kudashova ~30.3% vs our estimate 48%
• • Required break-even odds (2.083) are far below current 3.30 market price

Pros

• + Strong positive expected value based on supplied data
• + No documented injury or form advantage for the heavy favorite in the research

Cons

• - Research lacks ranking, H2H and venue-specific details that might justify market line
• - Small-sample records and qualifier matches are volatile — outcome variance is high

Details

We find value on Daria Kudashova because the market price (3.30, implied win probability ~30.3%) appears to overstate Jessica Pieri's advantage despite both players having virtually identical career spans, surfaces played and recent records in the provided data. With no injury, H2H or surface split in the research to separate them, a near-even true probability is more appropriate than the market's heavy favoritism for the home player. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48% for Kudashova, the fair decimal price would be ~2.083, well below the available 3.30, producing a strongly positive expected value (EV = 0.48*3.30 - 1 = 0.584). The market shows an overround and appears to be pricing home-court or other non-documented factors more aggressively than the on-paper data justify, creating value on the away side.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles show near-identical career records and recent form for both players
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard courts in the research — no clear surface edge
• • Market implies ~30% for the away player vs our ~48% estimate, creating value