Jessie Aney / Quinn Gleason vs Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi at 1.546 given a conservative 66% true win probability, producing ~2.0% ROI at current prices.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability 64.7%; our estimate 66.0% — slight edge
- • Expected value at current odds ≈ +0.020 (2.0% ROI)
Pros
- + Current market price offers a small edge vs our conservative probability
- + Home pairing records indicate they are genuine underdogs
Cons
- - Research provided is sparse and internally inconsistent (limited recent form/H2H)
- - Doubles matches carry high variance; small EV can be overwhelmed by noise
Details
We compare the market pricing to our independent win-probability estimate. The book gives Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi decimal odds 1.546 (implied 64.7%). The available player profiles show Aney/Gleason with generally weak win-loss records in doubles, creating a clear underdog profile for the home side. Despite sparse and partially inconsistent profile data, we judge Olmos/Sutjiadi to be the stronger doubles pairing based on experience/track record as a doubles pairing relative to Aney/Gleason and set a conservative true probability of 66.0% for the away team. At that probability the expected value for betting away at 1.546 is positive (EV = 0.66 * 1.546 - 1 ≈ 0.0204), so the current price contains small but real value versus our model. We remain cautious because the research set is limited, there is no detailed recent form or H2H, and doubles outcomes have high variance, so we keep the probability conservative.
Key factors
- • Market implies 64.7% for the away team; our model estimates 66.0%
- • Home pairing (Aney/Gleason) profiles show weak overall doubles records
- • Limited/incomplete research and no H2H increases uncertainty