Highlights

• • Home implied probability (≈69%) looks overstated given identical player profiles
• • Away price 2.67 exceeds our min required odds (2.00) for a 50% win chance, producing EV ≈ +0.335

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at the currently quoted away price if players are of similar level
• + Conservative probability estimate (50%) still produces a large margin over the market's implied break-even

Cons

• - Research is truncated and limited — no detailed recent form, H2H, or injury data to confirm the estimate
• - If there is undisclosed information (e.g., home player advantage, recent form swing), value could disappear

Details

We find value on Eunhye Lee (away). The market prices Jia-Jing Lu at 1.448 (implied ~69.1%) which is a strong favorite, but the available research shows both players with essentially identical profiles (career span, 10-21 records, surfaces played and truncated recent-form data) and provides no substantive reason to assign such a large edge to the home player. Given the symmetry in the available data and no injury/surface advantage reported, we estimate the true win probability for the away player around 50%. At that probability the away decimal price of 2.67 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.50 * 2.67 - 1 = 0.335). Therefore the away side represents a value bet versus the market's implicit 37.45% break-even threshold for that price. Calculations: market implied probabilities — Home 1/1.448 = 0.691, Away 1/2.67 = 0.375. Our estimated true probability (0.50) is materially higher than the market-implied 0.375 for the away, producing EV. We use the listed current decimal odds for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) and surfaces played in the provided data
• • Market implies a large home advantage (≈69%) not supported by the supplied profiles or recent-form data
• • No injuries, surface, or head-to-head information in the research to justify the bookmaker gap