Highlights

• • Tararudee's deep experience and winning history materially reduce upset risk
• • Current odds (1.21) offer ~6.5% ROI versus our estimated probability

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for the favorite
• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price

Cons

• - Low decimal odds mean limited absolute profit per stake
• - Tennis upsets can occur and short-format variance can hurt small-margin plays

Details

We see a large experience and career-quality gap: Lanlana Tararudee (559-507 across a long career with matches on all surfaces) is clearly the stronger, more seasoned player versus Jia-Jing Lu (10-21 in a short recorded pro span). Both profiles show recent losses, but Tararudee's breadth of matches and surface versatility reduce the upset likelihood. The market prices Tararudee at 1.21 (implied ~82.6%). We estimate her true win probability higher (0.88) based on career record, experience, and surface experience, producing a positive expected value at the current moneyline. Given the small edge (EV ≈ 6.5% on a 1-unit bet) this is a low-to-medium variance value play rather than a large inefficiency.

Key factors

• • Large career and matches-played advantage for Tararudee (559 matches vs 31)
• • Overall winning record and surface versatility favor the favorite
• • Market price (1.21) implies lower win probability than our estimate