Highlights

• • Market price (1.377) implies 72.6% chance; we estimate 75%
• • Estimated EV ≈ +3.3% on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between our probability and market-implied probability
• + Opponent's poor recent record supports home favoritism

Cons

• - Limited research on the home player in provided data increases uncertainty
• - Edge is small (low ROI) and sensitive to estimation error

Details

We project value on the home favorite (JiaYi Wang) because the available evidence on the away player (Yanan Hou) shows a weak recent record (10-21 career, very limited recent wins), suggesting Hou is a clear underdog. The market prices the home win at 1.377 (implied probability ~72.6%). Based on Hou's poor form and limited wins on the recorded surfaces (clay/hard) we estimate JiaYi's true win probability at 75.0%, slightly higher than the market-implied 72.6%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.333, and the offered 1.377 represents positive expected value (EV = 0.75 * 1.377 - 1 ≈ 0.0328, or ~3.3% ROI). Upside is limited but present; absence of head-to-head data and full info on JiaYi increases uncertainty, so we recommend a conservative value play only because the market price exceeds our minimum required odds.

Key factors

• • Away player Yanan Hou has a poor overall record (10-21) and limited recent wins
• • Hou's recent form includes many losses on clay and hard, indicating low momentum
• • Market-implied probability (72.6%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (75%), creating small positive edge