Highlights

• • Nishimura priced at 1.177 implies ~84.9% chance which conflicts with her 10-21 record
• • At our 40% estimate for the home player, required fair odds are 2.50 vs current 4.63

Pros

• + Large disconnect between market-implied probability and documented poor form of the favourite
• + High upside: sizable positive EV at current public price

Cons

• - No available data on Jialan Cai to corroborate our 40% estimate — increased model risk
• - Unknown surface/conditions and potential late information (injuries/withdrawals) could materially change probabilities

Details

We see a very lopsided market quote: Kayo Nishimura is priced at 1.177 (implied ~84.9%) while Jialan Cai is 4.63 (~21.6%). The research shows Nishimura has a poor recorded season (10-21) and recent losses on both hard and clay, indicating form issues. There is no research data on Jialan Cai, which increases uncertainty but also suggests the book may have overstated Nishimura's win likelihood. Conservatively, we estimate Jialan's true win probability at 40% vs Nishimura (Nishimura 60%). At the current home price of 4.63 this yields EV = 0.40 * 4.63 - 1 = 0.852 (85.2% expected ROI on a 1-unit stake), representing strong value relative to the market-implied 21.6% probability. Because the favourite's market price (1.177) implies an unrealistically high probability given Nishimura's documented 10-21 record and recent losses, backing the home underdog at 4.63 offers value in our view. We note higher uncertainty because of missing direct data on Jialan Cai and unknown surface/conditions, so risk is elevated despite the numerical edge.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Nishimura (implied ~84.9%) despite her 10-21 season record
• • Nishimura's recent form shows losses on multiple surfaces (hard and clay)
• • No available profile or results for Jialan Cai increases model uncertainty but also suggests market may be overpricing the favourite