Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Ezzat ~81% vs our estimate ~60%
• • Fair decimal odds for Ezzat ≈ 1.667; current 1.229 is too short

Pros

• + We rely on a conservative, data-grounded estimate rather than market momentum
• + Avoids taking a negative-EV favorite at a very short price

Cons

• - Limited information on the opponent (Jian Ibrahim) increases uncertainty
• - If there are undisclosed matchup or local advantages for Ezzat, our estimate could be too low

Details

We compare the market moneyline (Yasmin Ezzat 1.229 implied ~81%) to a realistic win estimate based on the supplied career/profile data. Ezzat's long career win rate (559-507 -> ~52% career) and the recent match snippets showing losses into 2025 indicate form that does not support an 80%+ implied probability. Even allowing for experience and possible matchup/surface edges, we estimate her true win probability at about 60%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.667, far longer than the quoted 1.229; backing Ezzat at 1.229 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.6*1.229 - 1 = -0.263). Conversely, backing the underdog (Jian Ibrahim) at 3.9 would only be +EV if we believe Ibrahim's true win probability exceeds ~0.256, which is plausible relative to Ezzat's 60% estimate only if we materially downgrade Ezzat further — the supplied data does not justify that. Given the mismatch between market pricing and the conservative, data-grounded probability estimate and the high uncertainty (no opponent data provided), we do not see a reliably positive EV opportunity at the listed prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career win rate (~52%) and long career suggest lower baseline than market-implied 81%
• • Recent listed results in 2025 show losses, indicating form is not dominant
• • No information provided on opponent (Jian Ibrahim) or surface/conditions to justify market gap
• • Market heavily favors Ezzat (short price) creating potential upside for underdog only if we downgrade Ezzat further