Jian Ibrahim vs Yasmin Ezzat

Highlights

• • Ezzat's career/recency data implies ~32–35% true win probability, far below the market-implied ~93%
• • Current prices produce large negative EV on the favourite and insufficient evidence to back the underdog

Pros

• + Clear negative EV on the heavy favourite at current odds
• + Transparent rationale: career win rate and recent form contradict market pricing

Cons

• - No research provided for Jian Ibrahim — inability to quantify underdog probability
• - If unseen contextual factors (injury, walkover) influenced the market, our estimate could be off

Details

We compare the implied market probability (Away 1.07 => ~93.5%) with a realistic assessment based on the available player data. Yasmin Ezzat's published career record in the provided research is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with poor recent results, which does not support an implied win probability anywhere near 93%. There is no usable information on Jian Ibrahim in the research, so we cannot justify the market's extreme favoritism. Using a conservative, generous true-win estimate for Ezzat (35%), the current price for her (1.07) produces a large negative expected value. Conversely, backing the underdog at 8.0 would require a true-win chance of at least 12.5% to break even; while that might be plausible, we lack evidence on Jian Ibrahim to confidently assign a probability above the implied 12.5% threshold. Given the information gap and the negative EV on the heavily juiced favorite, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Yasmin Ezzat career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) and poor recent form
• • Market prices make Ezzat ~93.5% implied favourite (1.07) — appears unrealistic vs. data
• • No research data provided on Jian Ibrahim, creating a critical information gap