Jiaqi Wang vs Xi Luo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We view Xi Luo (away) as a value bet at 2.81 because the market overstates the home advantage for Jiaqi Wang given nearly identical profiles; estimated EV ≈ +0.46 per unit.
Highlights
- • Players appear evenly matched on available form and surfaces
- • Away price 2.81 offers substantial edge vs our 52% true-win estimate
Pros
- + Clear mismatch between market implied probability and our estimate
- + High upside: current decimal odds well above breakeven threshold (1.923)
Cons
- - Limited and noisy recent-form data; both players have shrinking sample sizes
- - No H2H, injury, or venue detail to strengthen the edge—uncertainty remains
Details
The available profiles show Jiaqi Wang and Xi Luo with near-identical records (10-21) and similar surface experience, with recent results offering no clear edge to the home player. The market prices Jiaqi Wang at 1.391 (implied ~71.9%) and Xi Luo at 2.81 (implied ~35.6%), which overweights the home side given the parity in form and history. Removing bookmaker margin and accounting for the lack of distinguishing evidence, we estimate Xi Luo's true win probability at 52%. At the quoted away price of 2.81 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.52 * 2.81 - 1 ≈ +0.461 per 1 unit stake). The margin of safety vs market implied probability (52% vs 35.6%) and the symmetric player profiles justify taking the underdog at current prices, while noting limited sample sizes and uncertainty.
Key factors
- • Both players show virtually identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
- • Market heavily favors the home player (implied ~71.9%) despite no clear performance edge
- • Quoted away price (2.81) implies ~35.6%—well below our estimated true probability (52%)