Jiaqi Wang vs Yufei Ren
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles in the provided data, the market appears to overvalue the favorite; we estimate Jiaqi Wang’s win probability at 46%, producing positive EV buying Wang at 2.52.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability for Ren ~67.9% vs. our estimated true probability for Ren ~54%
- • Wang at 2.52 yields ~15.9% expected ROI under our estimate
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price for the home underdog
- + Research does not present compelling evidence that justifies the heavy favorite pricing
Cons
- - Limited and symmetric available data increases uncertainty of our probability estimate
- - No H2H, surface-specific event info, or injury details in the research — higher model risk
Details
Market prices make Yufei Ren a strong favorite (1.472, implied ~67.9%) despite the available profiles showing both players with essentially identical career spans, overall records (10-21) and similar surfaces played. There is no clear performance or injury evidence to justify such a large favorite margin. We therefore assign a near-even true probability tilt to Jiaqi Wang (46%) based on parity in the provided records and lack of differentiating information, which creates value on Wang at the current decimal price of 2.52. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.46 * 2.52 - 1 = +0.159 (≈15.9% ROI). We use the quoted current odds for the home side (2.52) in this analysis.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) and similar surface experience in the provided data
- • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~67.9%) despite no clear supporting performance differential in the research
- • No injury, H2H or clear form advantage available in the research to justify the market gap