Jiayi Wang vs Lin Zhu

Highlights

• • Market implies Zhu ~94% favorite despite similar head-to-head form
• • Wang's odds (7.0) require only ~14.3% true chance to be profitable; we estimate ~18%

Pros

• + Significant pricing inefficiency vs. supplied performance data
• + Wang has shown strong single-match serving metrics that narrow the gap

Cons

• - Available data is limited and both players have poor recent records, increasing variance
• - No H2H or detailed injury information in the supplied research; uncertainty remains

Details

We find clear value backing Jiayi Wang at 7.0 given the market's extreme pricing for Lin Zhu (1.06). The supplied profiles show both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on hard and clay, which does not justify a ~94% implied win probability for Zhu. Small match-level stats in the research even show Wang posting a very high 1st-serve won figure in a recent match (83%), while Zhu's listed 1st-serve won in a separate match was 69% — this supports a closer match than the market implies. Given the lack of injury or other dominant evidence for Zhu in the provided material, we estimate Wang's true win probability materially above the 14.3% breakeven implied by 7.0, producing positive expected value at current odds.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21), suggesting a close matchup
• • Match-level stats indicate Wang has posted stronger recent 1st-serve performance in at least one match (83%) versus Zhu's 69% in another
• • Market price (Zhu 1.06) implies an outsized probability that is not supported by supplied form/injury data