Highlights

• • Jiayi Wang heavy favorite at 1.12 (implied 89.3%)
• • Our estimated true win probability for Jiayi Wang ~60% (fair odds ~1.667) → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Clear market signal on the favorite makes the position easy to evaluate
• + Research shows no injury concerns that would suddenly justify a price movement

Cons

• - Insufficient differentiating data (rankings, H2H, form details) to justify backing the underdog
• - Large bookmaker margin on the favorite makes finding value unlikely without outside information

Details

We find no value on either side given the supplied data. Both players present nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface experience (clay/hard) with no reported injuries or H2H data in the research. The market prices Jiayi Wang as a heavy favorite at 1.12 (implied 89.3%); based on the similar profiles and recent form shown, we estimate Jiayi Wang's true win probability around 60%, which implies fair odds of ~1.667. At the quoted 1.12 the bet is strongly overpriced by the bookmaker and yields a negative expected return, so we decline to recommend backing the favorite. Conversely, the away price of 5.8 (implied ~17.2%) would only be +EV if we believed Zhuoma Ni Ma's win probability was ≳17.2%; given the two players' near-identical data there is insufficient justification to assign the away player a substantially higher true probability. Therefore no side shows positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface history (clay/hard)
• • Bookmaker has priced Jiayi Wang as an overwhelming favorite (1.12) that substantially exceeds a realistic true probability
• • No injury, head-to-head, ranking or differentiating form information in the provided research to justify large deviations from parity