João Graça vs S D Prajwal Dev
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home side (João Graça) at 2.55 because Prajwal Dev's career record and recent losses do not justify the market's ~68% implied chance; our conservative true win estimate for the home side is 48%, yielding ~22% EV.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors Prajwal Dev (1.46) despite his sub-50% career win rate
- • Home at 2.55 requires only ~39.2% true probability to be profitable; we estimate 48%
Pros
- + Clear market discrepancy between implied odds and Prajwal Dev's documented form
- + Decent EV margin at current widely-available home price
Cons
- - Research lacks any direct data on João Graça, increasing model uncertainty
- - Small sample and noisy recent-match stats for Prajwal make precise probability estimation difficult
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 2.55 -> 39.2%, Away 1.46 -> 68.5%) to what the available player data supports. The only research provided is S D Prajwal Dev's profile showing a 18-25 career record (41.9% win rate) and recent losses in the latest listed matches, which does not support a ~68% true win probability. Given Prajwal Dev's sub-50% career win rate and recent form, we view the market as overstating his chance. We conservatively estimate João Graça's true win probability at 48% (0.48). At the quoted home price of 2.55 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.48 * 2.55 - 1 = 0.224 (22.4% ROI). Therefore the home side represents value versus the market price. Odds used for EV calculation: 2.55 (home moneyline).
Key factors
- • S D Prajwal Dev career win rate is 18-25 (41.9%), below the market-implied level
- • Recent listed matches show losses, indicating weak short-term form
- • Market-implied probability for Prajwal (~68.5%) appears inconsistent with available form data
- • Limited/no data on João Graça increases uncertainty but allows market-dislocation exploitation