Joao Victor Couto Loureiro vs Pavel Lagutin

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 39.7% vs our estimated 47%
• • EV at current odds ~ +0.184 per 1 unit stake

Pros

• + Larger match sample and demonstrated clay play relative to opponent
• + Market odds appear to understate home's chance, producing clear quantitative value

Cons

• - Both players have losing or marginal records on the circuit; overall form is inconsistent
• - Small-sample uncertainty for Lagutin means results could be volatile and the market may move

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 2.52 -> 39.7%, Away 1.452 -> 68.9%) to our assessment. Given both players' limited records on the ITF circuit but Joao Victor Couto Loureiro's larger match sample and clay experience versus Pavel Lagutin's very small sample (3-4), we estimate Joao's true win probability materially above the market-implied 39.7%. Using a conservative true probability of 47% for Joao and the current home decimal price of 2.52 (used for EV), the stake has positive expected value. We acknowledge uncertainty from small samples and limited head-to-head information, but the pricing appears to over-favor Lagutin and underprice Loureiro on clay.

Key factors

• • Surface: both players have clay experience; Loureiro has a larger clay match sample
• • Sample size and variance: Lagutin's 3-4 career matches create higher uncertainty and potential market over-adjustment
• • Market-implied probability (39.7%) appears lower than our conservative true win estimate (47%) for the home player