Highlights

• • Implied home probability 64.5% vs our estimate 45%
• • EV on home at 1.552 is strongly negative (~-30%)

Pros

• + Home has clay experience which matches the surface
• + Bookmaker clearly views home as favorite, so if additional intel showed opponent weakness there could be value

Cons

• - Home’s 10-14 career record and recent mixed form do not justify a 64%+ market price
• - No data on the opponent increases uncertainty and downside risk

Details

We compare the market pricing (home 1.552 => implied win probability 64.45%) to our assessment of the home player’s true win chance. Joao Victor Couto Loureiro’s available profile shows a modest career record (10-14) with mixed recent form and experience on clay but no convincing indicators that he is a 64% favorite in this ITF matchup. The away player (Ricardo Rodriguez-Pace) has no research provided, creating additional uncertainty that argues against trusting the short home price. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 45% for the home player, the bet on the home at 1.552 yields negative expected value (EV = 0.45 * 1.552 - 1 = -0.3016). To find value on Joao we would need at least decimal 2.222. Given the limited data and discrepancy between implied and assessed probabilities, we do not recommend betting either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies home win probability of ~64.5% (1/1.552) which is high relative to available form data
• • Joao Victor Couto Loureiro career record 10-14 and mixed recent results on clay provide limited support for heavy favoritism
• • No research provided for Ricardo Rodriguez-Pace, increasing uncertainty and making the short favorite price riskier