Highlights

• • Implied home win probability: 73.7% (no value vs our 65% estimate)
• • Required minimum decimal odds for value: 1.538; current price 1.356 is too short

Pros

• + Home team are recognized doubles players historically (potential baseline edge)
• + Match surface is hard, which both sides have experience on

Cons

• - Provided career data for Salisbury/Skupski is fragmented and does not clearly justify a >73% win probability
• - Machac's extensive recent hard-court match play and Vocel's mixed form create uncertainty and reduce edge

Details

We compared the bookmaker-implied probability for the home team (1 / 1.356 = 73.7%) to our internal estimate of the true win probability (65%). The research provided includes only fragmented career/doubles records for Salisbury and Skupski that do not convincingly demonstrate dominance on hard courts in doubles, while Machac has substantial recent match volume on hard courts and Vocel has a mixed record. Given the limited doubles-specific data and contradictory signals in the supplied profiles, we do not have confidence that the true probability exceeds the implied 73.7%. At our estimated 65% true win chance, the bet on the home side at 1.356 yields negative expected value, so we recommend no wager.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability (73.7%) exceeds our estimated true probability (65%)
• • Research shows limited or inconsistent doubles-specific data for Salisbury/Skupski in the provided sources
• • Machac has high overall match volume and recent hard-court activity; Vocel has mixed results — suggests underappreciated upside for the away pair