Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Nagal: ~45.5%
• • Our estimated true probability: 48% → EV ≈ +5.6%

Pros

• + Nagal has recent, venue-specific form at Tulln (clay)
• + Current price (2.20) exceeds our min fair price (~2.083), creating positive EV

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on Joel Josef Schwarzler in the provided research
• - Edge is modest and uncertainty is elevated due to sparse information

Details

We estimate the market is underpricing Sumit Nagal. The current moneyline gives Nagal 2.20 (implied ~45.45%). Based on his long career win rate, documented recent matches at Tulln on clay including a recent win at this venue, and demonstrated competence on clay, we estimate Nagal's true win probability around 48%. That projection yields a minimum fair decimal of ~2.083, so the available 2.20 offers a small positive edge. We acknowledge limited publicly provided data on Joel Josef Schwarzler and no explicit injury information, which increases uncertainty, but the combination of Nagal's recent venue-specific activity and overall experience supports a modest value play on the away side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Sumit Nagal has a long career and solid overall win rate (344-247)
• • Recent matches at Tulln (clay) include a recent win at this venue
• • Market favors home (1.64) despite Nagal's venue-specific activity, suggesting potential mispricing