Highlights

• • Implied home probability (81.97%) >> our estimate (56%)
• • Fair decimal to convert our probability into price ≈ 1.786; current 1.22 is too short

Pros

• + Steur has a long career and broad surface experience (supports baseline competence)
• + If the opponent is significantly weaker (unknown in research), the market could be correct

Cons

• - Career win-rate (~52.4%) and recent losses do not justify an ~82% market probability
• - No opponent/H2H/injury details provided to justify such a short price

Details

We estimate the market is heavily favoring the home player (Implied home win probability = 81.97% from decimal 1.22) but the objective evidence in research does not support such a high probability. Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur's career win rate is ~52.4% across 1,066 matches and recent listed results show multiple losses, so we conservatively estimate her true chance in this matchup at 56%. At that estimated probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.786, meaning the current market price of 1.22 offers strongly negative expected value after the bookmaker margin (~7.2%). Because the expected value at the quoted home price is negative, we do not recommend backing the favorite at current odds.

Key factors

• • Home implied probability (1.22) = 81.97%, which is far above Steur's career win rate (~52.4%)
• • Recent listed results include recent losses, indicating form is not dominant
• • No data on opponent or head-to-head to justify the market's heavy lean toward home
• • Bookmaker margin is sizable (~7.2%), further reducing value for the favorite