Highlights

• • Market implies Nikles ~32%; we estimate him at 36%
• • Current odds (3.12) exceed our fair threshold (2.778)

Pros

• + Larger match sample and stable season record for Nikles
• + Current price provides a clear positive EV vs our conservative probability

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head or detailed matchup data increases outcome variance
• - Bernet's recent wins at the same event indicate he is in form, which could negate part of the value

Details

We see the market pricing Johan Nikles at 3.12 (implied ~32.1%) while Henry Bernet is a strong favorite at 1.342 (~74.5%). We believe the market overweights Bernet due to a small sample of matches and recent wins at the same M25 event, while Nikles has a larger match sample and a solid overall record. Nikles' broader match volume and mixed but competitive clay form make a closer matchup than the favorite price implies. Using a conservative true-win estimate for Nikles of 36.0% (higher than the market's 32.1%), the expected value at the current 3.12 price is positive: EV = 0.36 * 3.12 - 1 = 0.1232 (≈12.3% ROI). The minimum fair odds for our estimated probability are 2.778, so the current 3.12 offers value versus our projection. We acknowledge uncertainty from limited direct-comparison data and recent-tournament swings, so our probability is conservative.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Nikles (32.1%) appears lower than his broader season win rate and experience
• • Bernet's sample size is small (14 matches) which can inflate perceived reliability of recent wins
• • Both players played recent matches at the same M25 clay event, suggesting surface/venue is neutral