Highlights

• • Players appear evenly matched based on the supplied profiles
• • Away price (2.12) exceeds our fair odds threshold (2.00) for a 50% estimate

Pros

• + Small positive EV at current away price (approx +6% ROI)
• + No conflicting injury or surface information undermining the pick

Cons

• - Edge is slim and rests on a neutral 50% assumption due to limited differentiating data
• - Market could reflect information not in the supplied research (line movement, practice reports)

Details

We find little to separate the players in the supplied research: nearly identical career records, the same recent results, and both comfortable on the likely surfaces. The market prices Johanna Silva as a clear favourite at 1.66 (60.2% implied) while Julia Rennert is 2.12 (47.2% implied). Given the symmetrical evidence and lack of injury or surface advantage, a neutral prior of ~50% for each player is reasonable. At that 50% estimate, Rennert at 2.12 offers positive expected value (0.06 EV per unit). The home line at 1.66 requires Silva to be >60.2% to be +EV, which we cannot justify from the provided data, so we prefer the away price where the market appears to slightly overvalue the home player.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles show near-identical career records and recent form
• • No injuries, H2H, or surface edge identified in the supplied data
• • Market favours home (1.66) more steeply than evidence supports, creating value at 2.12