Highlights

• • Market implies home win (~82.8%) that conflicts with career records
• • At our 65% estimate, Gadamauri's odds of 4.07 produce a large positive EV

Pros

• + Large upside due to clear market mispricing
• + Gadamauri's extensive experience and higher career win-rate support the pick

Cons

• - Research lacks H2H and detailed, recent-form context — increases variance
• - Small sample for Svendsen could hide unlisted form/improvements not in the provided data

Details

We see a significant mismatch between the market and the player profiles. The market makes the home (Svendsen) an 1.207 favorite (implied ~82.8%), but Svendsen's career record in the provided research is 10-21 (~32% win rate) across 31 matches and limited experience. Tamila Gadamauri has a long, high-volume career (559-507 over 1,066 matches, ~52.6% win rate) and experience across all surfaces listed, making her the objectively stronger player in the research. Given Svendsen's poor recorded win rate and Gadamauri's clear experience advantage and broader surface history, we estimate Gadamauri's true win probability materially higher than the market implies for her price of 4.07. That creates strong value on the away side at current quoted odds. We note limited recent-match detail and absent H2H data in the research as caveats that increase uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Gadamauri (1066 matches) vs Svendsen (31 matches)
• • Career win-rate differential favors Gadamauri (~52.6% vs ~32%)
• • Market heavily overprices the home at 1.207 (implied ~82.8%) creating value on the away
• • Both players have played similar surfaces, but Gadamauri has broader surface experience
• • No H2H or injury info in research — increases uncertainty