Highlights

• • Home implied win prob 38.5% vs our estimate 37%
• • Arthur's greater experience and higher-level recent events tilt the matchup away from the underdog

Pros

• + Home is priced as a clear underdog and could be profitable if our estimate is conservative
• + Both players' recent mixed form introduces variance that could produce an upset

Cons

• - Market price is slightly shorter than required for positive EV based on our model
• - Arthur's stronger record and higher-level recent results reduce upset probability

Details

We estimate John Hallquist Lithen's true probability to beat Arthur Nagel at ~37%. Market decimal price for the home side (2.6) implies a win probability of ~38.5% (1/2.6 = 0.3846). Given Arthur Nagel's stronger career volume and slightly better win record (32-37 vs 20-32), recent results on clay at higher event level (M25 vs M15) favor Nagel. Both players show mixed recent form, but the tournament level and greater match experience for Nagel justify a market premium. The home's current odds (2.6) are marginally shorter than the min-required odds implied by our estimated true probability (2.703), producing a small negative edge at available prices, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Arthur Nagel has more matches and a better career record, plus recent play at higher-level M25 events
• • Both players have mixed recent form on clay; no clear momentum advantage
• • Market-implied probabilities (home 38.5%) slightly exceed our home estimate (37%), eliminating value