Highlights

• • Current away price (13.0) well above our fair threshold (6.667)
• • Home price (1.03) appears overpriced relative to documented form

Pros

• + Large edge at current odds if our conservative probability is accurate
• + John Lithen's modest 6-15 record supports higher upset chance than market implies

Cons

• - Information on Leon Formella is limited in the provided research, creating uncertainty
• - High variance of upsets in tennis and small-sample volatility make outcomes unpredictable

Details

The market offers Leon Formella at 13.0 (implied ~7.7%). John Hallquist Lithen's profile shows a modest career record (6-15) and limited sample size on clay, which argues against treating him as a 97% certitude favorite. We conservatively estimate Leon's true chance at 15% given John's inconsistent form and small-sample volatility; at that probability the away selection is strongly positive EV because 13.0 >> required fair odds (6.667). The home price 1.03 is too short to offer value versus any realistic true probability for Lithen based on his recorded win rate and recent results, so we recommend backing the away upset at current prices while acknowledging high uncertainty and variance.

Key factors

• • John Hallquist Lithen's career record 6-15 indicates limited winning resume
• • Market odds heavily favor home (1.03) implying near-certainty which conflicts with player's record
• • Small sample size and recent inconsistent results increase upset probability