John Hallquist Lithen vs Manas Dhamne
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value exists at current prices: the favorite's price (1.165) is shorter than our fair estimate (~1.22), producing negative EV; the underdog would need an implausibly high true probability to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Dhamne: ~85.8%; our estimate: 82.0%
- • Fair odds for Dhamne ~1.22; current quote 1.165 yields -0.045 EV on a 1-unit stake
Pros
- + Dhamne is the objectively stronger player based on match volume and wins
- + Surface familiarity — both have recent hard-court matches in Monastir
Cons
- - Price for Dhamne is too short to offer value under our probability estimate
- - Hallquist's record and form do not justify the long price required for value
Details
We compared the market prices to our estimated win probability. Manas Dhamne is the clear favorite (current decimal 1.165, implied ~85.8%) and has a larger match base and better record this season than John Hallquist Lithen, who is a significant underdog. After accounting for surface (both have recent hard-court activity in Monastir), form, and experience, we estimate Dhamne's true win probability at ~82.0%. That implies fair decimal odds of ~1.22; the available 1.165 is shorter than fair value, yielding a small negative EV. The long price on Hallquist (4.63) would require his true win probability to be >=21.6% to be +EV, which is above what his recent record and results justify. Therefore there is no value on either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Dhamne has a deeper match base and better season record vs Hallquist
- • Both players have recent hard-court activity in Monastir; surface edge not decisive
- • Current market prices strongly favor Dhamne, leaving little or negative margin/value