John Hallquist Lithen vs Nazim Makhlouf

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home: 69.9% (1/1.43)
• • Our conservative true probability estimate: 45% → required odds ≥ 2.222 for value

Pros

• + Home player has recent match experience in Monastir (familiarity with venue/surface)
• + Clear market favorite, so liquidity and price availability are good if value appears

Cons

• - Career win-rate and recent mixed results do not support a ~70% win probability
• - No opponent data available to justify the market gap — high uncertainty

Details

The market prices John Hallquist Lithen at 1.43 (implied win probability 69.9%). Available data show Hallquist with a 7-16 career record (≈30% raw win rate) and only mixed recent results in Monastir on hard courts. There is no data provided for Nazim Makhlouf to justify a market gap in his favor. Given the limited sample and lack of opponent information, a conservative true-win estimate for the home player is 45%, well below the market-implied 69.9%, so the favorite is overpriced and offers negative expected value at the quoted 1.43.

Key factors

• • Home player career record is weak (7-16) suggesting lower baseline win probability
• • Recent matches include mixed results in Monastir on hard courts — no clear upward form trend
• • No data provided on Nazim Makhlouf, increasing uncertainty and arguing for market skepticism