John Hallquist Lithen vs Keshav Chopra
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Keshav Chopra at 1.725 — our model gives him a 60% win chance, producing a modest +3.5% ROI at current odds, but uncertainty is material.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~57.97% for Keshav; we estimate 60%
- • Positive EV of +0.035 (3.5% ROI) at current price 1.725
Pros
- + Slightly better recent level and larger sample of matches
- + Current odds (1.725) are above our minimum required odds (1.667) for a 60% win probability
Cons
- - Both players have limited/probably noisy ITF records; estimates have high variance
- - No direct head-to-head or full surface confirmation in the provided data
Details
We assess Keshav Chopra (away) as the slight favorite based on a larger match sample, marginally better win totals (9-22 vs 6-15) and experience at a higher-level event in the recent snippets (M25 vs M15), which suggests a small quality edge. The market price of 1.725 implies a win probability of ~57.97%, while our estimated true probability is 60.0%, giving a positive edge. Using p=0.60, the expected value at the current decimal odds (1.725) is EV = 0.60 * 1.725 - 1 = +0.035 (3.5% ROI). We acknowledge significant noise from small ITF samples, surface uncertainty and gaps in head-to-head data, so the edge is modest but positive relative to the listed price.
Key factors
- • Keshav Chopra has a larger match sample and slightly better win totals (9-22 vs 6-15)
- • Recent appearances include higher-level event (M25) vs John Hallquist Lithen's M15, suggesting a small quality edge
- • Market-implied probability (57.97%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (60%), producing positive EV