John Hallquist Lithen vs Manas Manoj Dhamne
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices Manas as an overwhelming favorite, but given John’s form and the lack of evidence to justify an >85% true win probability, there is no value at the current 1.17 price.
Highlights
- • Current away odds 1.17 imply ~85.5% win chance
- • Our conservative true probability estimate for the favorite is 80%, requiring odds >=1.25 for positive EV
Pros
- + Heavy market support implies the favorite is legitimately stronger
- + Surface/context (Monastir hard) aligns with John having recent losses, reinforcing disadvantage
Cons
- - Provided research lacks data on Manas, increasing uncertainty in our probability estimate
- - Current price (1.17) is too short to offer positive expected value unless the favorite is >85.5% likely to win
Details
We compare the market price (Away 1.17 -> implied ~85.47%) to our estimate and find no value. John Hallquist Lithen's available profile shows a 7-16 record and weak recent form on hard at Monastir, which supports a clear advantage for his opponent but does not justify the market-implied >85% win probability for Manas. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Manas of 80% (0.80) based on John’s limited wins, poor recent results, and match-level context, the required fair decimal odds to be profitable would be 1.25, while the current widely-available price is 1.17. EV at the current price = 0.80 * 1.17 - 1 = -0.064, so the favorite is overpriced relative to our estimate and we therefore do not recommend betting.
Key factors
- • John Hallquist Lithen career record 7-16 and poor recent form at Monastir (hard)
- • Market strongly favors the away player (1.17) implying >85% win probability
- • No confirming data in the provided research to justify an >85% true win probability for the favorite