John Hallquist Lithen vs Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf

Highlights

• • Home 1.364 implies ~73.3% win chance; we estimate ~57.5%
• • Current price creates a negative ROI of about -21.5% on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Home is slightly favored by form in the limited data and has recent Monastir matches
• + Both players are familiar with hard courts, reducing surface surprise risk

Cons

• - Records are similarly poor — no clear performance gap to justify heavy favorite odds
• - Research lacks head-to-head, ranking, or injury detail; high uncertainty

Details

We find the market strongly favors the home player John Hallquist Lithen at decimal 1.364 (implied ~73.3%), but the available player profiles show both competitors with similarly poor season records on hard courts (John 7-16, Mohamed 9-22) and mixed recent results in Monastir. There is no clear head-to-head, no injury or ranking detail in the provided data to justify a >70% true win probability for John. We estimate John’s true win probability around 57.5%, which implies fair decimal odds ~1.739. At the current price of 1.364 the bet is negative EV (EV = 0.575 * 1.364 - 1 = -0.215). Conversely, backing the underdog Mohamed at 2.91 would require his true win probability to be ≥34.36% to break even; while we consider some upside for the underdog, our best estimate does not confidently push Mohamed’s true probability high enough to claim positive EV against the market after accounting for margin and information uncertainty. Given the negative EV at available prices and limited actionable edge in the research, we recommend no wager.

Key factors

• • Both players have similar weak season records on hard courts (John 7-16, Mohamed 9-22), suggesting closer matchup than market implies
• • Market-implied probability for John (73.3%) looks overstated given the limited performance differential and no injury/advantage data
• • Limited and noisy recent-match stats (both with mixed Monastir results) increase uncertainty and reduce confidence in the favorite