John Peers / Rinky Hijikata vs Sander Gille / Joran Vliegen

Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability (61.5%) exceeds market-implied (59.2%).
• • EV is positive but modest (≈+3.9% ROI per unit staked).

Pros

• + Price shows a small but quantifiable edge vs our probability estimate.
• + Home players have recent hard-court activity shown in profiles, supporting surface suitability.

Cons

• - Edge is small; vulnerable to model/estimation error or unreported variables.
• - Opponent-specific form and head-to-head details are not available in the research, increasing risk.

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home doubles pair (1.69 => ~59.2%) to our assessment. Based on the provided player profiles, both home players show recent hard-court activity (Peers listed with a hard-court Davis Cup match; Hijikata with multiple recent hard events), which supports competence on the likely surface. The market price contains a modest vigorish (~6.3%), and given the relative experience indicated in the profiles and the absence of any reported injuries or negative indicators for the home pair, we estimate a true win probability slightly higher than the market-implied 59.2%. Using an estimated true probability of 61.5% against the available decimal 1.69 produces a small positive edge (EV ≈ +0.039 per unit). However, this is a marginal value play — the edge is modest and uncertainty is elevated because opponent form, head-to-head and more detailed doubles-specific metrics are not provided in the research.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home at 1.69 is ~59.2%; we estimate ~61.5%
• • Both home players have documented recent hard-court activity in the provided profiles
• • Opponent form/H2H and detailed doubles metrics are not provided, increasing uncertainty