Highlights

• • Market is heavily favoring Gamble (1.21) but our conservative true probability estimate is ~70%
• • Fair price given our estimate is ~1.429; current price is too short to offer value

Pros

• + Gamble has recent hard-court experience in the provided data
• + Market confidence suggests he is expected to win, reducing variance if proven

Cons

• - Sample size for Gamble is extremely small and mixed (1-1), limiting reliability
• - No provided data on opponent Cedric Drenth prevents confident upset probability modeling

Details

The market prices Jon Gamble at 1.21 (implied ~82.6%). Gamble's available profile shows an extremely small sample (2 matches, 1-1) both on hard courts and recent mixed results; there is no usable data on Cedric Drenth in the provided research. Given the limited data and unknown quality of the opponent, we conservatively estimate Gamble's true win probability at 70%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.429, which is materially longer than the current 1.21. Using the provided odds (1.21), the expected value is negative (EV = 0.70 * 1.21 - 1 = -0.153), so there is no value to back Gamble at current prices. Similarly, backing the underdog at 4.10 would require a true upset probability >24.39% to be +EV; we lack evidence to justify that level of confidence in the underdog either. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited sample for Jon Gamble (2 matches, 1-1) increases uncertainty
• • Both recorded matches were on hard courts (surface alignment with this match)
• • No information provided on Cedric Drenth (opponent unknown), increasing model risk
• • Market implies ~82.6% for Gamble, which we view as overstated given available data