Highlights

• • Market-implied probability at 1.85 = 54.1%
• • Our estimated true probability for Forejtek = 60% → positive EV

Pros

• + Clear difference in career winning percentages in the provided data
• + Price symmetry (1.85/1.85) suggests market uncertainty we can exploit

Cons

• - No head-to-head or detailed match-level stats provided to refine the model
• - Some uncertainty in recent form and conditions could reduce the edge

Details

We find value on Jonas Forejtek at the offered 1.85 because our read of the available data gives him a materially higher win probability than the market-implied probability. Forejtek's career record in the provided dataset (25-14) implies a strong win rate versus Alejandro Moro Canas's provided record (30-33). Both players have clay experience, but Forejtek's recent form and superior career win percentage suggest a true chance materially above the market-implied 54.1% (1/1.85). Using a conservative blended estimate that weights career win rate and recent results, we estimate Forejtek's win probability at 60%, which produces a positive expected value at the current 1.85 price (EV = 0.60*1.85 - 1 = +0.11). We acknowledge uncertainty from no H2H data and limited match-level context, but the pricing appears to understate Forejtek's chances enough to justify a value bet.

Key factors

• • Forejtek's superior win-loss profile in the provided dataset (25-14) versus Moro Canas (30-33)
• • Both players have clay experience; surface exposure favors a player with a higher recent win rate
• • Current moneyline of 1.85 implies ~54.1% while our estimate is ~60%, creating positive edge