Highlights

• • Home implied probability (78%) exceeds our conservative estimate (72%)
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current market prices

Pros

• + Clear market favorite indicates likely higher win probability
• + Market appears efficient; prices show only a small margin if any

Cons

• - Insufficient external information increases uncertainty around any probability estimate
• - Favorite price is too short to offer positive expected value

Details

We estimate Jonas Pelle Hartenstein is a clear favorite but, given the lack of independent data (no recent form, surface, injury, or H2H info available), we apply a conservative adjustment to the market. The market-implied probability for the home price 1.28 is ~78.1%, but after accounting for uncertainty and a typical bookmaker margin we estimate the true win probability at 72.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.389. The available market price of 1.28 is shorter than our fair price, producing negative expected value. Conversely, Dorian Juszczak at 3.35 would require a true win probability of at least ~29.9% to break even; our conservative estimate for him is ~28.0%, which also yields negative EV at current odds. Because neither side offers positive expected value vs our conservative probabilities, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.28 => ~78.1%) vs our conservative true probability (72%)
• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — increases uncertainty and requires a conservative edge
• • Bookmaker margin/overround in the quoted prices reduces available value