Highlights

• • Peter's career record (170-95) implies clear quality edge
• • Current price (1.171) is above our min required 1.136 for an 88% win probability

Pros

• + Positive EV at available market odds
• + Large sample size and demonstrated consistency for the favorite

Cons

• - Edge is modest (~3% ROI) — small margin relative to variance
• - Lower-level events can produce upsets; limited direct-form detail on Jonas increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Away 1.171) to our estimate of Peter Fajta's win probability. Peter has a large sample (265 matches, 170-95) and a substantially stronger career record than Jonas Pelle Hartenstein (29 matches, 10-19). Both have clay experience; there are no injury flags in the provided research. Given the quality and depth gap, we estimate Peter's true win probability materially above the implied market break-even. At our estimated probability of 88%, the break-even decimal is ~1.136 and the current 1.171 offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the away favorite at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Peter Fajta has a much larger match sample and markedly better career win-loss record
• • Jonas Pelle Hartenstein has limited matches and a weak overall record, increasing upset probability but not enough to offset gap
• • No injuries or negative indicators reported; surface experience (clay) is present for both but favors the more consistent player