Highlights

• • Forejtek price 2.08 implies 48.1% — we estimate 51.5%
• • Positive EV of about 0.071 (7.1% ROI) at current odds

Pros

• + Price (2.08) offers a cushion vs our probability estimate
• + Forejtek's greater experience and higher match volume work in his favor in a tight clay matchup

Cons

• - Limited specific head-to-head data and mixed recent results increase uncertainty
• - Edge is modest — outcome variance in a single match on clay is high

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (Forejtek 1/2.08 = 48.1%, Gaubas 1/1.763 = 56.7%) to our assessment of the match. Both players show similar recent results on clay at the Seville Challenger and have comparable career win rates, but Forejtek's greater professional experience and higher match volume suggest a modest edge in a tight matchup. We estimate Jonas Forejtek's true win probability at 51.5%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 48.1% for the 2.08 price, producing positive expected value. There are uncertainties (limited direct H2H and mixed recent form), so the recommendation is cautious — we recommend taking Forejtek only because the current 2.08 price appears to understate his win chance.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Forejtek (48.1%) is below our estimated true probability (51.5%)
• • Both players have recent clay matches in Seville, but Forejtek has more professional experience and match volume
• • No clear injury flags or surface mismatch; matchup looks close so small edges translate to value at current price