Highlights

• • Market implies 73.9% for Filip; we estimate 78.0%
• • Estimated EV ~+0.055 (5.5% ROI) at current decimal odds

Pros

• + Clear experience and headroom advantage for Filip
• + Current price (1.353) offers value versus our conservative probability estimate

Cons

• - Small-sample noise and limited detailed match stats increase uncertainty
• - No H2H data and possible unreported short-term factors (injury/fitness) could change outcome

Details

We find value backing Jakub Filip. Book odds (1.353) imply a win probability of ~73.9%. Based on the research, Filip has substantially more match experience (74 matches, 35-39) versus Jonas Gundacker (17 matches, 3-14) and is in comparatively better recent form. Gundacker's record and recent results indicate a clear underperformance and limited upside. Adjusting for surface familiarity (both have clay exposure) and the small-sample noise, we estimate Filip's true win probability at 78.0%, higher than the market-implied 73.9%. That gap produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.78 * 1.353 - 1 = +0.055 (5.5% ROI). We consider this a value play at the quoted prices but note elevated model uncertainty given limited detailed match stats and no direct H2H.

Key factors

• • Jakub Filip has a much larger match sample and superior overall record (35-39 vs 3-14)
• • Jonas Gundacker's recent form is poor with very few wins and multiple recent losses
• • Both players have clay experience, so surface does not materially favor the home underdog