Jordan Thompson vs Raphael Collignon

Highlights

• • Market underprices Collignon (implied 41.8% vs our 55% estimate)
• • Fair price based on our estimate is ~1.818; current 2.39 offers substantial edge

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current odds (≈31.5% ROI)
• + Collignon's stronger career win rate and larger match sample give more confidence in his probability

Cons

• - Limited match-specific context provided (no H2H, surface, or injury details in the research)
• - Davis Cup/home advantage may favor Thompson and reduces margin of certainty

Details

We assess value on Raphael Collignon (away). The market prices Jordan Thompson as the favorite at 1.581 (implied probability 63.2%) and Collignon at 2.39 (implied 41.8%). Our view, based solely on the supplied profiles, is that Collignon has the stronger underlying record (41-24, ~63% career win rate across 65 matches) versus Thompson (16-16, 50% across 32 matches). Giving some credit for home/Davis Cup advantage toward Thompson, we conservatively estimate Collignon's true win probability at 55%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.818, and the current offer of 2.39 materially exceeds fair value. Calculated EV at the quoted 2.39 = 0.55*2.39 - 1 = +0.315 (31.5% ROI per unit staked). By contrast, backing Thompson at 1.581 with our probability would be negative EV. Therefore we recommend the away side because the market underestimates Collignon's chance relative to his stronger career record and larger sample size, even after a modest home-advantage adjustment.

Key factors

• • Collignon's superior career win-loss record (41-24) and larger sample (65 matches)
• • Thompson's smaller sample and .500 career record (16-16) suggests lower baseline probability
• • Market implies Collignon 41.8% at 2.39, which is significantly below our 55% estimate