Jordan Thompson vs Zizou Bergs
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Zizou Bergs at 2.28—our estimated win probability (47%) implies ~7.16% ROI versus the market price, so we recommend the away side.
Highlights
- • Market implies 43.9% for Bergs; we estimate 47%
- • EV at current odds ~+0.072 (7.16% ROI on a 1-unit stake)
Pros
- + Bergs' stronger season record and larger match sample suggest greater reliability
- + Current odds 2.28 provide a margin above our calculated fair price (min required 2.128)
Cons
- - Limited head-to-head and contextual detail increases uncertainty in the estimate
- - Tennis match variance is high; single-match outcomes can deviate from probabilities
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (Jordan Thompson 1.64 => 60.98%, Zizou Bergs 2.28 => 43.86%) to our estimate. The research shows Bergs has played substantially more matches this season with a better raw win-loss record (36-29 versus Thompson 16-16), suggesting a higher true baseline level and match readiness on the same surfaces (hard included for both). Recent results at the US Open for both are mixed, so form doesn't strongly favor Thompson despite the market pricing him as the clear favorite. Given Bergs' larger sample of matches and superior season win rate, we assign Bergs a true win probability of 47% (0.47). At the current away price of 2.28 that implies a positive expected value (EV = 0.47*2.28 - 1 = 0.0716). The market therefore appears to be underpricing Bergs and overpricing Thompson, creating a value opportunity on the away side.
Key factors
- • Bergs has a larger sample size and better season win-loss record (36-29 vs 16-16)
- • Both players have experience on hard courts; surface does not strongly penalize Bergs
- • Market-implied price favors Thompson more than underlying form/sample suggests