Jorge Robinson vs Joao Portugal
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend the home side (Jorge Robinson) because the market overestimates Joao Portugal given his 0-5 record; at 3.20 decimal this looks value with an estimated EV ~+21.6%.
Highlights
- • Joao is 0-5 on record, yet is the heavy favorite at 1.32
- • If Jorge's true win probability is ≥38%, current odds of 3.20 offer positive expected value
Pros
- + Strong value signal from mismatch between Joao's documented form and market pricing
- + Decent upside: high decimal odds (3.20) amplify positive edge if our probability is close to correct
Cons
- - Very limited data available (only Joao's short 0-5 sample); Jorge's profile is unknown which increases uncertainty
- - Small-sample variance and possible information not in provided research (injury, withdrawals, ranking context) could justify the market pricing
Details
We identify value on the home player (Jorge Robinson) because the market strongly favors Joao Portugal at 1.32 (implied ~75.8% for Joao / ~31.3% for Jorge) despite research showing Joao is 0-5 in recorded matches on hard courts and has no wins in his short career sample. Given Joao's documented lack of wins and the absence of additional positive indicators in the research, we estimate Joao's true win probability is substantially below the market-implied level. Translating that into a conservative estimate for Jorge, we assign Jorge a 38% chance to win. At decimal odds 3.20 for Jorge this yields EV = 0.38*3.20 - 1 = +0.216 (21.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market therefore appears to overprice Joao and underprice Jorge, giving a clear value edge on the home side under our assumptions.
Key factors
- • Joao Portugal recorded career matches 0-5 with losses on hard courts
- • Bookmaker prices imply Joao ~75.8% to win (1.32) despite no wins in available match history
- • Limited public data on Jorge creates uncertainty, but the discrepancy between form data and market prices indicates value