Jorge Robinson vs Mateo Martinez
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With only market prices and no additional match information, the home price of 1.65 is below our conservative fair odds and offers negative expected value; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability for Jorge Robinson: 57%
- • Required fair odds (1.754) exceed offered home odds (1.65) — no value
Pros
- + Conservative, data‑averse approach reduces chance of misjudging unseen factors
- + Market prices are close to our estimates, suggesting limited opportunity
Cons
- - No external data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
- - If unobserved factors (injury, surface advantage) exist they could materially change value
Details
We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data and therefore use a conservative estimate. The market-implied normalized probability for the home moneyline (1.65) is roughly 56-57%. We estimate Jorge Robinson's true win probability at 57% (0.57) to slightly favor the market but allow for uncertainty. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is ~1.754, which is higher than the available home price of 1.65, producing negative expected value. The away price (2.14) would require a true probability of ~46.7% or less to be +EV; our view does not support that. Given the available quotes and lack of additional data, neither side shows positive EV, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No external match data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) — conservative assumptions only
- • Market-implied favorite probability close to our conservative estimate (market not offering edge)
- • Available home odds (1.65) are below our fair threshold, producing negative EV