Highlights

• • Home at 12.0 implies 8.33% market chance vs our 3.0% estimate
• • Away at 1.03 is essentially a lock by market pricing but offers no meaningful positive EV

Pros

• + Current prices are clear and widely available (deep favorite vs long outsider)
• + Conservative probability assumptions avoid overbetting on little-known matchups

Cons

• - Huge uncertainty due to lack of form/injury/H2H data
• - Required odds for profitable home bet (33.333) are well above current market

Details

We see a very short market price for the away player (1.03) and a long price for the home player (12.0). With no external data returned and no injury/form/H2H context, we apply conservative assumptions: we estimate the true upset probability for Jorge Robinson (home) at 3.0% (0.03). The market-implied probability at 12.0 is 8.333%, which is materially higher than our estimate, so the market is overpricing the home upset. At our estimate the home EV = 0.03*12.0 - 1 = -0.64 (negative). The away implied probability from 1.03 is 97.087%, while our implied estimate for the away is 97.0%—the tiny difference produces a negligible negative EV for the away at current odds (EV ≈ -0.0009). Because neither side offers positive expected value using conservative, realistic assumptions, we do not recommend a bet. If one wanted value on the home player, the required decimal odds to reach break-even given our 3.0% estimate would be 33.333.

Key factors

• • No external data available—use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market-implied probabilities: Home 8.333% (12.0), Away 97.087% (1.03)
• • Our conservative estimate (home 3%) implies the home price is overpriced and away price offers no practical positive EV