Jorge Robinson vs Justin Lyons
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices the away heavily; our conservative 90% estimate for Lyons implies the available odds (1.06) are negative EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Favourite implied probability (94.3%) exceeds our estimate (90%)
- • Neither side produces positive EV at current quoted prices
Pros
- + Conservative probability reduces risk of overestimating value
- + Clear calculation shows market price is too tight to be exploitable
Cons
- - Lack of external data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
- - If unknown injury/withdrawal risk is higher than assumed, probabilities could shift materially
Details
The market prices Justin Lyons at 1.06 (implied ~94.3%) and Jorge Robinson at 8.50 (implied ~11.8%). With no external data available we adopt a conservative estimate that Lyons is very likely to win but not quite as certain as the market implies; we estimate Lyons' true win probability at 90.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.111, well above the market favourite price of 1.06, so the favourite offers negative expected value. The longshot (Robinson) would need a true win probability of ~11.8% to be fairly priced at 8.50; our view is closer to 10% which also produces a negative EV. Given these estimates neither side offers positive value at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors away (Lyons) at implied ~94.3%, which we view as slightly overstated
- • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we apply a conservative estimate to avoid overconfidence
- • Tennis upsets and withdrawals can occur, so a small gap between market and true probability is plausible but not large enough to create value here